LCOE Analysis: BESS vs. Diesel Baseload in Mogadishu

2026-08-01•TECHNO-ECONOMIC

Executive Summary

This brief provides a comparative Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) model for a theoretical 50MW Wind + Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) along the Somali Indian Ocean coastline, evaluated against the traditional $0.85/kWh diesel generation baseload.

Micro-Siting & Wind Potential

Using OpenFOAM CFD simulations coupled with ERA5 satellite data, the escarpment exhibits a sustained mean wind speed of 8.4 m/s at a 100m hub height.

Economic Model (HOMER Pro)

Diesel LCOE: $0.85 - $1.00 / kWh
Wind + BESS LCOE: $0.12 - $0.18 / kWh
CAPEX: Highly front-loaded for BESS, but NPV crosses positive at Year 4.2.

"The structural reliance on diesel generation creates an artificial economic ceiling. Replacing baseload with BESS/Wind hybrids is not just environmentally critical; it is the most aggressive lever for GDP growth available in the region."

Data Tables & Appendices

Raw simulation outputs are available in the /simulations directory of the SED Terminal.